2010
07.31

Dingbat Data Leaks

Identity-fraud rates are at their highest level in five years.  But while most people imagine that sophisticated hackers pose the biggest threat to ID security, the majority of data breaches are actually accidental.  Last year the Identity Theft Resource Center tracked 231 human-error cases involving 21 million records.

The stories are depressingly banal.  Over and over, it’s a matter of hasty e-mails, goofy printer errors and flash drives lost at conferences.  ”The most stupid and ridiculous is the most common,” says consultant Robert Siciliano, CEO of IDTheftSecurity.com.

One common blunder is best referred to by the highly technical nomenclature “records dumped in the trash.”  If only they’d stayed there.

Recent news accounts describe troves of private data washing up on the banks of Maine’s Pennamaquan River, blowing through Manhattan’s Upper West Side and swirling around a parking lot near the Richmond, Va., Babies “R” Us.  Then there are the meth addicts who thrive on Dumpster data diving.  While the surplus in ill-gotten credit card information recently sunk the street price from $10 to 50 cents per account, some ID files can still fetch $25.

Next we encounter the phenomenon known as “forgetting your stuff.”  Data-security research firm the Ponemon Institute says business travelers lose half a million laptops in airports every year, and nearly half those computers hold customer data.  I left my MacBook at a Phoenix hotel last summer, so I shouldn’t point fingers.

But it’s harder to excuse security professionals.  Last June a veteran driver for Salt Lake City’s Perpetual Storage was asked to transport billing records for 2.2 million hospital patients to his company’s fireproof vault inside a granite mountain protected by steel doors and armed guards.  Instead, he left the box overnight in his car.  As Murphy’s Law would have it, a random burglar took the box.

Experts say many companies don’t enforce simple procedures that would prevent a leak.  Last year, when Verizon Business’s Investigative Response Team was called in to investigate breaches involving several major retailers, it discovered the obvious problem: They were all using the same supplier to maintain their system, who was using the same default password to protect each retailer’s database.  ”Not an incredibly good decision,” says Verizon security expert Wade Baker.

But some incidents are so absurd it seems all the foresight in the world couldn’t prevent them.  My favorite: the Norfolk, Va., gas station attendant who refilled the receipt printer with a used roll that had prior customers’ credit card data printed on the back.

Then there’s Broome Community College in upstate New York, which mailed 14,000 alumni magazines with the recipients’ Social Security numbers printed on the back.

And the State of Louisiana, which mailed 150 tax-bill reminders with a second taxpayer’s data — yes — printed on the back.

But look at the bright side.  Ponemon researcher Mike Spinney says just 2 percent of all data breaches result in ID fraud.  So cluelessness works both ways.  Just as it takes human stupidity to produce a leak, even accidental recipients with criminal tendencies are usually too dense to realize what they’ve received.

By: Anne Kadet, www.smartmoney.com

2010
07.30

Does the Housing Market Need a Pep Rally?

When he was mayor of New York, Ed Koch was famous for asking anyone he met, “How am I doing?”

Perhaps not wishing to hear the answer to that question, the Obama administration’s top housing and mortgage officials recently gave their own reply: We’re doing great!

The Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development released a new monthly “housing scorecard” in an attempt to show that the administration is making progress in its efforts to heal the market.

It’s mainly a rehash of statistics released by a variety of sources, and many of them can be read as signs of stabilization. What the statistics can’t show is whether that stabilization is only a temporary reprieve brought about by tax credits, very low interest rates and other forms of government intervention.

“Today’s housing market is in significantly better shape than anyone expected 18 months ago,” HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan told reporters. Despite alarming forecasts back then, he said, “the world didn’t end.”

After ticking off lots of hopeful indicators, Mr. Donovan slipped in what may have been the day’s most important point: “Obviously, we are not out of the woods. Our housing market remains fragile, and we still may see further declines.”

We already have seen evidence of very steep declines in newly contracted home sales since April 30, the deadline for home buyers to qualify for tax credits of up to $8,000.

But that drop did not show up in June’s report from the National Association of Realtors on May home sales because that reflected sales that were completed in May, not new contracts signed.

The Treasury also released its monthly update on the administration’s $50 billion drive to prevent foreclosures, known as the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP.

The report shows that 340,459 households at the end of May were benefiting from long-term reductions in their mortgage payments under HAMP. That was up 15% from a month earlier. Since the program started in the spring of 2009, about 1.2 million households have been given “trial” modifications. To convert those trials to long-term relief, the households must make at least three payments and provide documents showing that they qualify for the program. HAMP provides financial incentives to borrowers, loan servicers and investors.

The number of people crashing out of HAMP remains huge, largely because until recently loan servicers weren’t required to verify borrowers’ eligibility before starting them on trials. By the end of May, 429,696 trials had been canceled, up from 277,640 a month before.

Nearly 468,000 households are still in trials; 190,000 of them have been in that limbo stage for at least six months as loan servicers slowly work through their huge backlogs of unresolved cases.

Another big problem remains: Even after HAMP modifications, many borrowers still face crushing overall debt burdens, when credit cards, car loans, student loans and other obligations are considered. For those granted HAMP mods, the median ratio of overall debt payments to pretax income is 64%. That means the typical borrower has little left over for food, clothing and other expenses and may be just one surprise medical bill or car repair away from another default.

By: James R. Hagerty,www.wsj.com

2010
07.29

New Search Engine Optimization Technology Ready to Revolutionize Real Estate Industry

The real estate industry has seen a huge number of changes over the past 20 years with the advent of pagers, cell phones and the Internet, and a new one coming out now for search engine optimization will do the same thing with how agents market themselves online in 2010 and beyond.

Since 1999, the real estate industry has seen less than 1% of home sales come from the Internet to over 80% in the last 2 years.  The changes keep coming, and real estate agents and brokers are doing their best to keep up by creating websites and search engine rankings to get to where the buyers are coming from.

Agents spend thousands of dollars and more to pay for SEO work and marketing to get first page rankings for a few major keywords in Google, Yahoo and other major search engines.  Pay-per-click offers some traffic, but the costs can get expensive, and many agents are not happy with the results they get.

All of that will be changing very soon as a new IDX/MLS search engine marketing system begins to hit the real estate industry over the next 12 months.  It is a new “SEO” technology that will revolutionize the real estate industry one more time and enable real estate agents in the middle to low productivity class to compete with the “whales.”

What is it?

It is a technology that breaks down an agent’s IDX feed and creates thousands of Web pages all targeting long tail keywords and adds them to their website.

Why is it powerful?

Because over 70% of all keywords typed into Google looking for real estate are long tailed keywords.  Long tail keywords are normally 6-7 plus word searches for real estate like:

“2 bedroom condo for sale in la jolla”

“gated home for sale in del mar”

“3 bedroom oceanfront condo for sale san diego”

Compared to short tail keywords where most agents are bunched up like:

“san diego home for sale”

“san diego real estate”

“san diego condo for sale”

This technology first grabs up hundreds of long tailed keywords and then begins to also pull short tailed keywords over time.

When agents start getting hundreds of Web pages ranking in Google, they are going to start seeing much better results in the form of home sales, plus the long tailed keywords normally convert into a better quality lead since the searches are much more specific.

Why will it revolutionize the real estate industry?

1. Because it is going to put agents using it at a huge advantage against agents and brokers who do not.  Agents who have hundreds of pages ranking in Google will start getting better results than agents with a handful or couple of keywords.  It is no longer about who can spend more, but rather where you are spending your marketing dollars that matters.  The costs are low enough so anyone can afford it, which levels out the playing field for agents.

2. It is a technology that goes after where the vast majority of searches are being done online (long tail keywords) — and it is very affordable.  After reviewing data last week from Google Analytics, the total number of long tailed keyword searches amounted to 80% of the total searches being done.  Most agents and SEO experts do not realize how many searches being done are coming from these long tailed keyword phrases.  Considering the fact you can create a couple thousand pages and target hundreds of keywords for $600 makes this affordable to the everyday agent looking for ways to maximize their marketing budget.

Also consider the options that most real estate SEO companies offer now which is “spend $2,000 to $5,000 for search engine optimization and get 3-5 keywords on the first page of Google.”  The cost is much cheaper than traditional SEO packages, and the results are greater because relevant data from the listings in the MLS is being used to provide the content and pages are not created from scratch.  You are not just ranking in Google for 3-5 keyword phrases but rather “hundreds” of keyword phrases, which when added together become significant.

The long tailed keyword pages will eventually get rankings for short tailed keyword phrases after doing long term link building.  This is a much cheaper way to get results than what the vast majority of companies are charging.

3. This is a low cost form of SEO which targets hundreds of keywords and creates a massive blanket of Web pages which are attached to the agents existing website.  You keep the website you have and add thousands of pages to it.  The option for starting with a new website is available as well, but many agents have had the same website for years and are happy with it, so this creates a cutting edge way to add to it and keep building it out.

How many companies offer this type of service?

The fact is there are a few companies who have versions of this technology, but they either charge $5,000 for the build out or they simply take the MLS data and paste it on the Web pages.  This is not as effective as re-writing all the title lines and anchor text for each listing and re-classifying it for multiple categories.

This new technology is different because it re-writes all the title lines and anchor text, and it classifies the listings according to how they are being searched for.  This puts the content on static Web pages for search engines while still staying compliant with the MLS boards on how the information can be displayed.

It updates all the pages and listings as the MLS data updates and is able to transfer ASP data into static feed data and create the static feed data on the fly for anyone who is tech-savvy.  If you do not understand that, do not worry since all you need to know is that 1) it works very well and 2) it is cheap to get started.  A couple thousand Web pages can be created for $600.

Because most companies simply copy the data, they can only offer the content to one agent per market place because, if they build it out for anyone else, it would be duplicate content.  This new technology can spin and re-write the data so that Phoenix — as an example — could have 3,000+ agents all with different Web pages and content.

Not MLS limited — What do you mean?

The fact is that other companies who offer similar versions are limited to offering this service only to areas where they can get an MLS feed.  With over 900 MLS boards around the country, this is very limiting since each board has different costs and access to vendors making this a real big pain to deal with.  This technology can use the MLS feed when available or use Google Base, if the MLS provider is too expensive or difficult to work with.  This means that this service is available anywhere in the United States and Canada.

A few large website companies are now looking at using this technology for their clients since many website companies need something to keep their cancellation rates low and also something to give them an edge over their competition.  Agents who are tired of pay-per-click and poor results with other forms of marketing are starting to invest in setting up these massive Web page grids and pull in more buyers off the Internet.

The sooner you can put it to use, the faster you will see the power of this technology and how effective it is as a low cost way to target Internet buyers and traffic and start expanding the number of home sales and search engine exposure you are getting.  For more information on this new SEO service for real estate agents and mortgage lenders, check out the Real Estate Marketing Nerds website or e-mail info@multimediaicon.biz.

By: Sean Callahan, www.rismedia.com

2010
07.29

Dumbest Things You Do with Your Money

Brad Klontz knows all about the dumb things that smart people do with their money: He’s a smart guy (with a doctorate in psychology) who lost half of his assets in the technology stock bubble.

A financial psychologist, Klontz says that when it comes to money smarts, size matters: The logical part of your brain is so much smaller than the emotional side that it’s like “a circus performer riding an elephant.”  To make smart decisions about your finances, you need the logical side to dominate.  But once you get tweaked by greed or fear, that elephantine emotional brain is likely to run amok.

That’s why otherwise intelligent people chase get-rich fantasies.  Or cling to stocks that are long past their expiration dates.  Or find other ways to let fear and superstition keep them from smarter financial moves.  Here are eight of these common, emotionally driven money mistakes — plus some tricks from experts for getting that elephant in line.

1. Falling in Love … With Your Investments

It can be great to fall in love with a person, but stocks can get you into deep trouble.  Newport Beach, Calif., financial planner Laura Tarbox says she sees this all the time: Some clients keep concentrated stock holdings because they inherited them and “Mom just loved IBM,” or because they work for the company and feel that selling would be disloyal.

Then there’s the couple who came to her asking for help investing $12 million.  ”That sounded really great until we found out that this couple used to have more than $1 billion,” Tarbox says.  ”All their money had been invested in a company that the husband helped launch — and he couldn’t convince himself to diversify when he walked away.”

Sorry, but that relationship just won’t work, says Tarbox.  No one should have more than 10 percent of his or her wealth locked in one stock.  Just ask the former employees of Enron, who lost both their jobs and their retirement savings when the company filed for bankruptcy 10 years ago.

2. Chasing a Fantasy

You’ve read it 100 times: “Past performance is not an indication of future returns.”  But no one appears to believe it.  Purveyors of investment data can trot out tons of statistics showing that when a mutual fund or asset class (such as gold, emerging markets stocks, or junk bonds) gets singled out for great quarterly or annual returns, investors start to pour money into that investment like it was going out of style.

And, of course, it is.  One extensive study that looked at 19 years of market data found that investors consistently poured money into “hot” investments just as they were about to turn cold.  That left the average investor with returns that fell way below the market as a whole and didn’t even keep up with inflation.

Klontz admits that this is why he lost his shirt in technology stocks.  It’s a natural inclination to “run with the herd,” he says with a shrug.  Maybe so, but if you don’t want to get trampled, you have to devise an investment strategy that suits your goals and then stick to it, even as your neighbor gets (temporarily) rich on the investment du jour.

3. Equating “On Sale” with “Good Deal”

Consider two television sets: Both are $500, but one is marked down from $800.  Which one do you buy?  If you’re being reasonable, you buy the one that got the better rating in Consumer Reports.  But most people buy the one that’s on sale, says Matt Wallaert, a consultant for LendingTree, which owns the money management Web site Thrive.  In fact, even people who would never have spent $500 on a television often will when it’s discounted — simply because it’s so cheap!

In reality, $500 is $500.  If you wouldn’t normally spend that much on a television (or any product, for that matter), you shouldn’t do it now.  We’ve been fooled by “anchoring”: the illogical, but nearly inescapable, tendency to base our estimates of value on the nearest number we see, rather than an independent assessment.  Just because the tag has $800 crossed out and replaced by $500, that doesn’t mean $800 was a meaningful price.  Indeed, an MIT experiment revealed that students who wrote down the last two digits of their Social Security numbers based their estimates of a wine bottle’s worth on those two random numbers.  The higher their numbers, the more the students were willing to bid for the wine.

Before you pull out your checkbook to splurge at a sale, evaluate whether the product, be it a television or a bread machine, is worth that price in enjoyment.  Consider how often you’ll use it, for instance, and whether you can get something of similar quality for less.

4. Retaliatory Spending

You don’t need it.  You don’t want it.  But, dang it, no one is going to tell you that you can’t have it.  New York psychologist Bonnie Eaker Weil calls it “POP” spending — for “pissed-off purchases.”  She did a survey before publishing her latest book, Financial Infidelity, and estimated from the results that POP spending accounts for about $424 billion in purchases each year.

One of Weil’s Brooklyn-based clients, for example, went on a retaliatory $500 shopping spree when her husband gave one of her beat-up old jackets to charity without asking her first.  When she got home, she informed him that since he didn’t like her old jacket, she had gotten a new one from Saks Fifth Avenue.  Such purchases can also result from a fight with your boss, mother, or best friend, according to Weil.

But as good as retaliatory spending may feel, it can do real damage to your financial health.  Tarbox says a better approach is to talk out the anger, hurt, or disappointment — or just your bad day — with a friend, or even a professional counselor.  If you have to spend money on a psychologist, it’s probably still cheaper than the golf clubs or designer shoes you put on your credit card after that last argument with the boss.

5. Hanging on to Debt

The number of people who have money in savings accounts, earning less than 2 percent, while carrying debt on credit cards that charge more than 14 percent is “shocking,” Wallaert says.  Of Thrive’s customers who have more than $500 in credit card debt, almost 40 percent have more than enough in savings to pay it off, he says.

Wallaert connects this mistake to “mental accounting” that separates our money into different stacks that we think ought to stay separate.  But illogical separations can create mathematical mayhem.

Consider a person with $5,000 in credit card debt and $10,000 in savings.  The debt costs him 14 percent per year, or $700, but the $10,000 in savings earns just 2 percent annually, or $200.  He could pay off the debt, saving the $700, and still earn $100 annually on the remaining $5,000 in savings.  Net result: He’s immediately $600 richer and can start saving faster.

You might argue that you need those savings for emergencies.  And you do need some emergency savings, allows Frank C. Presson III, a financial planner in Tucson, Ariz.  But if you’ve got considerably more savings than debt, there’s no excuse.  Keep one month’s worth of living expenses in the bank, even at those sorry returns, Presson advises.  Use the rest to pay off the high-cost debt.  Then rebuild the emergency savings, not the debt.  Worst-case scenario: You still have the credit cards (now with zero balances), and you can tap them in an emergency.

6. Parental Martyrdom

An emerging problem involves parents who spend themselves to the edge of insolvency bailing out their children.  ”It starts from a good place, basically from wanting to be a good parent,” Klontz says.  ”They’ll say that Johnny is going through a rough patch and needs some help.  But it becomes financial enabling.”

Worse, it often causes the parents to suffer money woes that keep them from retiring or living comfortably because they’re constantly paying Johnny’s bills.

Any time you help an adult child, you should have a clear idea of how much help is necessary, how long it will be required, how it will help the child get back on his or her feet, and when (or whether) the child will have to pay you back.  When there’s no plan — just an open checkbook or couch — you turn the child into a dependent who becomes increasingly incapable of taking care of himself, Klontz says.

“I talk to the parents about how their attempts to help are like giving a drink to an alcoholic because his hand is shaking.  This kind of helping is hurting,” he says.  ”Then we talk about what kind of help would really help.”  (Hint: That kind generally doesn’t involve cash.)

7. Cyber Insecurity

Roughly half the world has signed on for free online banking, which makes money management easier and saves the typical consumer about $50 annually in postage stamps.  Among the people who don’t use online banking, 41 percent say they’ve held back because of security concerns, according to a recent survey by Gartner Research.

What do banks typically do to secure online customer accounts?  They put up multiple firewalls, which are the equivalent of brick enclosures around your house, and they have techno-security teams attempting to find the weak spots and shore them up.  They also patrol the firewalls 24/7, looking for climbers.

Now, let’s look at your mailbox.  It’s probably unlocked and unguarded — just what a thief needs to steal your credit cards.  In reality, the chance of becoming a victim of identity theft or financial fraud as the result of low-tech crime — whether it’s somebody stealing cards or “spoofing” you into providing private information via e-mail — is a lot greater than the chance that somebody will breach your bank’s online vault.

So sign up already and save the stamps.  And if you’re worried about security, check your account regularly to make sure there’s no suspicious activity.

8. Hoarding Money

Children of the Depression did a lot of this — stuffing $20 bills in their bibles or balling up tinfoil and rubber bands so they wouldn’t have to buy more.  But planners say that this is often a problem with wealthy and responsible older folks today: They’re so afraid of running out of money that they don’t enjoy the money that they have.

“When people deny themselves things that they could clearly afford, you have to ask them what they’re saving that money for,” Tarbox says.  ”We have to tell them that they’re not spending enough.”

If you’re worried about running out of money, sit down with a financial planner and work out the math.  Make sure you consider worst-case investment scenarios, not just the averages.  That will make you more comfortable about weathering a bad patch like the one we just muddled through.  Then, if you still have more than enough, make a plan that will allow you to enjoy your wealth by either spending the excess or giving it away.

Money, after all, is a means to an end — not the end itself.  You save it to make you, and the people you love, calm and comfortable.  And it’s a lot more fun to take the kids and grandkids on vacation — or provide them with college money or other gifts while you’re around to get the hugs and kisses — than to know that they’ll inherit a fortune after you die.

By: Kathy Kristof, www.cbsmoneywatch.com

2010
07.28

Preparing For Nature’s Worst

Earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, hail, hurricanes, tornadoes and lightning strikes are just a few of the nasty surprises that nature can whip up.  Unfortunately, bad weather can affect anyone.  It is important to prepare for both large-scale and small-scale natural disasters so that, when the damage is done, you have the means to pick up the pieces and rebuild your portfolio and your life.  In this article we will look at what you need to do to make sure your financial interests come out on top after any of these uncontrollable events.

Be Sure of Your Insurance

It is a common recurring theme in every area struck by a natural disaster that a) no one saw it coming, and b) no one was properly insured for it.  Sitting in our dry and cozy home, it can be easy to scoff at the victims, but the truth is that almost everyone can be under-insured when it comes to a disaster.  The biggest wake-up call is the fact that homeowner’s insurance covers a very limited set of circumstances — fires from faulty wiring and such — that doesn’t include all the natural disasters that your area may be prone to.

Full Replacement Coverage

At the very least you should have full replacement or replacement cost coverage.  This policy will cover the cost of replacing your home or other insured buildings.  Pay attention to the limits of the policy because they will define what kind of further coverage you need.  Earthquake and flood insurance are sold as separate policies and, although the premiums can be high, you should buy them if you live in an area that regularly suffers such disasters.  If you are new to the area, the local library archives will have environmental data that will help you look into what kinds of natural disasters have occurred in the area in the past.

Keeping Current

Once you have your home covered with all the relevant policies, you will need to have your home reassessed every few years so that the policies reflect the true value of your house.  Also, if you do major renovations, such as installing hardwood flooring or finishing the basement, you will need to update the policy.  There is a more extensive home insurance policy available called a guaranteed replacement cost policy.  This policy will rebuild your home and may include improvements dictated by changes in the building code (something other policies may omit), but it is not available everywhere.

Covering the Knick Knacks

For the best insurance records, consider keeping a detailed list of the contents of your home and update it yearly.  The list should include serial numbers, photos and descriptions of everything, even the fixtures.  This will expedite the processing of any claim you may file and serve as documentation for your tax losses and deductions.  The best way to make sure your list is accurate is to ask your insurance agent what he or she wants to see in a claim.  For more expensive items like jewelry and costly electronics, you should consider separate coverage over and above the basic coverage of the items in your house (items that are likely depreciated yearly by your insurance policy).  If you have a home office, you can get affordable business coverage to cover the equipment that you use for the business, rather than putting it under your basic home policy.

Renting? You Still Need Coverage

The insurance that your landlord carries will cover damages to the building but not your possessions.  Therefore, if you live in an area that’s prone to natural disaster, you should consider renter’s insurance.  Not all policies are created equal; if you get a bare-bones policy that just covers the replacement cost of your stuff, you will be missing possible coverage for the relocation to another area or the living costs while you wait for your apartment to be repaired.  Renter’s insurance can be pretty cheap, so shop around for the best policy and the best price.

Emergency Documents

With the exception of your will, which should be kept by your attorney or at the local registrar’s office, you should rent a safety deposit box for the originals of all other important documents.  Keeping them in your home puts you at risk of having them stolen, destroyed in a fire or swallowed in an earthquake.  This includes everything from your home’s deed to your marriage license.  One good idea would be to make two extra copies of all of these documents and leave one set with your attorney or a trusted friend/relative.  The second set will be placed in your emergency kit.

Emergency Kit and Your Wish List

An emergency kit is a small and compact package of things that you want to bring with you in the event that you and your family need to flee from a disaster.  Your emergency kit should be a box small enough to run with.  Making a pack that is waterproof with a lock would be a plus, but a child’s plastic lunch box will do in a pinch. Inside should be:

1. Copies of all your important documents (home’s deed, marriage license, birth certificates, etc).

2. Enough traveler’s checks or cash to make it through a few days at a hotel.

3. Copies of any prescriptions and your health and dental insurance cards.

4. Computer backups of your financial records (if you have them) or copies of the first two pages of your most recent federal and state income tax forms.

Also, you should make a wish list of items to take in the event that you have the time to collect a few select items before you need to flee.  This can be negatives or CDs full of your family photos, jewelry or whatever else is important to you and can be quickly stuffed and carried in a small bag.  It is easier to make the decisions now, when the roof and walls aren’t falling in around you and your loved ones.

Be Proactive

While preparing for an unexpected disaster sounds impossible, there are many things that you can do.  By taking the steps mentioned above, you will be better able to rebuild after the event, but, if you are homeowner, you can go even further.  There are many upgrades, such as hurricane shutters and moving your wiring so it runs in the attic, that will minimize the damage of most natural disasters.  As a bonus, these same upgrades will lower your insurance premiums.  Building inspectors, workers from your utility company and a local fire fighter will be able to tell you what changes you can make to protect your home and the people in it.

By: Andrew Beattie, www.forbes.com

2010
07.24

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2010
07.23

Six Gas Mileage Myths

Do Americans care about fuel economy as oil spills into the Gulf of Mexico week after week and gasoline hovers around $3 a gallon?  You bet they do, though they also have a fair number of misconceptions about how to squeeze a few more miles out of every drop.

The Consumer Federation of America’s (CFA) most recent survey says that if we had a 50-mile-per-gallon car fleet today, we’d save more oil than the entire proven reserves in the entire Gulf of Mexico.  And people care about that.

According to Jack Gillis, author of The Car Book and a CFA spokesman, 87 percent of respondents said it is “important that the country reduce its consumption of oil,” and 54 percent said it is “very important.”

An amazing 65 percent of Americans surveyed support a mandated transition to a 50-mpg fuel economy standard by 2025.  That’s a tough standard, some 15 mpg better than the ambitious goal set by the Obama Administration (35 mpg by 2016).

“The expectations of American consumers are reasonable and achievable,” Gillis said in a conference call.”  CFA says that Asian carmakers, compared to the U.S. competition, are offering twice as many vehicles with 30 mpg or better.  ”It’s shocking that so few of today’s cars get more than 30 mpg,” he said.

Mark Cooper, CFA’s research director, noted that in five years of the group’s polling, the public’s views have stayed remarkably consistent: Americans want less dependence on Middle Eastern oil and higher fuel-economy standards.

So, people care about fuel economy, but they’re misinformed about how to actually achieve it.  The federal government’s fueleconomy.gov site (very useful to check cars’ mpg) just published the “Top 10 Misconceptions about Fuel Economy.”

Here are a few of the big myths:

³It takes more fuel to start a vehicle than it does to let it idle.

People are really confused about this one and will leave a car idling for half an hour rather than turn it off and restart.  Some kids I know started an anti-idling campaign in the suburbs and are shaming parents into shutting down their cars.

Idling uses a quarter- to a half-gallon of fuel in an hour (costing you one to two cents a minute).  Unless you’re stalled in traffic, turn off the car when stopped for more than a few minutes.

³Vehicles need to be warmed up before they’re driven.

Pshaw.  That is a long-outdated notion.  Today’s cars are fine being driven off seconds after they’re started.

³As a vehicle ages, its fuel economy decreases significantly.

Not true.  As long as it’s maintained, a 10- or 15-year-old car should have like-new mileage.  The key thing is maintenance; an out-of-tune car will definitely start to decline mileage-wise.

³Replacing your air filter helps your car run efficiently.

That’s another outdated claim, going back to the pre-1976 carburetor days.  Surprisingly, modern fuel-injection engines don’t get economy benefits from a clean air filter.

³After-market additives and devices can dramatically improve your fuel economy.

As readers of my story on The Blade recall, there’s not much evidence that these “miracle products” do much more than drain your wallet.  Both the Federal Trade Commission and Consumer Reports have weighed in on this.  There are no top-secret 100-mpg add-ons out there.

³Using premium fuel improves fuel economy.

You might as well write a check to BP if you believe this.  Always use the grade recommended by the manufacturer of your vehicle.  Only use premium if your car specifies it.

By: Jim Motavalli, www.thedailygreen.com

2010
07.20

The Housing-Market Recession is not Over

After years of hearing how home prices are plummeting and foreclosures are mounting, consumers want to feel hopeful about the housing market — but maybe they’re being too optimistic.

In a recent presentation to the National Association of Real Estate Editors in Austin, Texas, Stan Humphries, Zillow.com’s chief economist, pointed to four myths he said consumers are latching onto as they try to make sense of recent housing statistics.

The four myths:

1. The housing recession is over.  It’s not, Humphries said.  He estimates the bottom in home prices won’t come until the third quarter, at least from a national perspective.  Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae and also a speaker at the conference, agreed with that estimation.

2. After markets hit bottom, prices will rebound to boom levels.  Not going to happen, at least for a while, Humphries said.  ”Once we hit bottom, the bottom is going to be a long and flat affair across the markets,” he said.  ”What we’re going to see once we hit bottom is the second phase of the housing recession … that second phase is one of being flat.”

3. The worst of the foreclosure mess is behind us.  More wishful thinking, according to Humphries.  He estimates foreclosures will peak later this year, then remain elevated for a while.  Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties, said he doesn’t envision foreclosure activity stabilizing until late 2011.

4. The tax credits saved the housing market.  With or without a tax credit, those who bought would have done so anyway, Humphries said.  ”The biggest impact in home sales we believe were low prices, low interest rates and the unsung factor here is the ramped up lending by the Federal Housing Administration.”

Still, it’s easy to understand why many homeowners want look on the bright side.

“They went from what everyone thought was a lucrative asset to something worth a lot less than they owed on it,” said Douglas Culkin, president of the National Apartment Association, in a phone interview.  ”We all want it to get better,” he said.

Some want to finally sell their homes and move on with their plans.  And homeowners are tired of thinking their houses are bleeding equity, losing value like a new car driven off the dealership lot.

As for prospective home buyers, even if consumers are feeling confident enough to take an extra trip to Wal-Mart these days, many are not going to jump in and spend on a large-ticket item like a house, said Gail Cunningham, spokeswoman for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling.

“The reality of the situation in which we find ourselves today has sunk in with people,” she said in a phone interview.  ”If a foreclosure hasn’t been a part of their life, it has been a part of someone else’s life, and they’ve seen the pain that inflicts on the family.”

That perception isn’t going to fade quickly.

It makes sense to be gloomy

Despite statistics showing some housing-market improvement, there’s still good reason for pessimism.

The most recent Case-Shiller report showed prices rose 2.3% in March, compared with March 2009.  The National Association of Realtors recently reported that in April the median existing home price rose 4% in the past year; existing home sales were up 7.6% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million.

While it’s too soon to quantify the degree of the effect, the deadline for the home-buyer tax credit likely played into the numbers.  Contracts needed to be in place by April 30 to qualify, and some economists say that incentive made buyers move earlier than they would have otherwise.  Any bump from a temporary credit is soon over.

But there is another important reason to take improving numbers with a grain of salt: What people are calling “shadow” inventory.

That’s primarily inventory that banks are holding, homes that have been foreclosed on but haven’t yet hit the market.  There are also severely delinquent homeowners who haven’t entered foreclosure yet, but who will eventually get there.  Right now, many of them are trying to work out some sort of mortgage modification.

Then there’s this: The group of “sidelined sellers,” or people who want to sell their homes but have waited for the storms to pass, Humphries said.  About 7% of homeowners — representing more than 5 million homes — fall into this category, and are very likely to try and sell their home in the next year if there are signs of improvement, according to Zillow estimates.

Additional inventory on the market slows any housing recovery.

Personal economies

Despite Humphries’ theory that Americans are too optimistic on housing, there are plenty who still remain cautious.  And if they’re not looking at housing statistics with a skeptical eye, their personal economies are providing a reality check.

Most obviously, salaries for many Americans have been frozen or cut, and then there are the large numbers of people completely out of work, Culkin said.

According to a recent NFCC survey of more than 2,000 consumers, 49% said that if they were to attempt buying a home today they’d never be able to save enough money for a down payment.  Coming up with a down payment has traditionally been problematic for first-time buyers, but it has spread to those who have owned before; many people are underwater in their mortgages, making it harder for them to get funds to move to another house.

Plus, today’s buyers aren’t only concerned about the ability to get a home but also their ability to keep it, said Duncan, of Fannie Mae.  In the long run, that attitude is a good thing for the economy, he said.  ”It’s not just that we want a house, but we will delay getting that house until we can afford to get it and afford to keep it.”

By: Amy Hoak, www.marketwatch.com

2010
07.19

MMRecap for July 19

 

Last week began on the downside for U.S. Treasuries.  Monday was almost a non-day, but then came Tuesday.  Stocks went wild on better-than-expected profits from Alcoa and the rally was on.  Investors regained confidence and safe-haven buying dried up.

The yield on the 10-year note zoomed to 3.11% from Monday’s 3.05%.  Yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Weak retail sales in June ignited strong buying in bonds on Wednesday.  Sales fell for the second straight month — down 0.5%.  That afternoon the minutes of the Fed’s June 22-23 meeting showed the Committee lowered its GDP forecast for 2010 to 3% -3.5% from 3.2% – 3.7%, raising further concerns about the economy.

Treasuries continued their rise on Thursday, with four of the five reports supporting the theory of a slow economic recovery.  The day began on an up note with first-time unemployment claims dropping by 29,000 to 429,000 — a two-year low.  The four-week average also fell to 455,250.  This had some economists thinking this may be the first in a series of declines.

The rest of the reports, however, were bond-friendly.  The producer price index, which looks for signs of wholesale inflation, fell 0.5% in June, while the core index, which eliminates volatile food and energy prices, rose by an expected 0.1%.  Traders had nothing to fear on the inflation front.

Manufacturing was also hard hit.  The Philly Fed index of July manufacturing conditions fell to 5.1 from 8 in June.  The May index hit 21.4.  The July NY Empire State manufacturing index plunged to 5.1 from 19.6 in June.

Separately, nationwide industrial production rose 0.1% — weaker than May’s 1.3% increase.  Capacity utilization was unchanged at 74.1%.

These reports renewed concerns about economic growth — pushing the specter of a rebound further into the future.  Money headed back to the safe haven of bonds, and the yield on the 10-year fell below 3.0% again, closing at 2.98%.

Friday began with the consumer price index showing no signs of inflation in retail prices.  The index itself rose 0.1%, while the more closely watched core rate rose 0.2% — slightly more than the predicted 0.1% increase.  Bond prices remained flat.

The week’s final report showed consumer sentiment hitting its lowest level since August.  The University of Michigan said that its preliminary July survey slid to 66.5, down from the June reading of 76.  Buying in bonds picked up, driving the 10-year note yield down to 2.95%.

Mortgage applications continue to decline, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.  For the week ended July 9, the refinance index fell 2.9%, while the purchase index dropped 12.7%.

The recent trend of slow week/busy week continues, with only four economic reports on this week’s docket.

With earnings season heating up, Wall Street might influence trading in the bond markets as much or more than the reports would.  Better-than-expected quarterlies from influential corporations can ignite buying in equities, and bonds will sell.  But disappointing reports would likely have the opposite effect.

On Tuesday housing starts and building permits for June are due.  Both categories came in far below estimates in May.

Starts are expected to fall to an annual rate of 563,000 from 593,000.  Building permits, which shine a light on future starts, are predicted to fall to an annual rate of 555,000 from 574,000 in May.  These two reports, however, are subject to huge revisions.

More housing data come out Thursday with the release of existing home sales in June.  They are expected to drop to an annual rate of 5.10 million units versus a May rate of 5.66 million units.

First-time jobless claims for the week ended July 17 could be watched more closely than usual.  Were analysts correct in thinking last week’s big decline in claims was the beginning of the long-awaited turn around in employment?  Another big decline would no doubt bring about selling in bonds, but an increase would usher in a sigh of relief.

The final report, the index of leading economic indicators for June, is expected to fall 0.5%.  It had been heading upward for months indicating good economic times ahead.  This would be a setback.  Although bonds would like it, this report isn’t a big mover.

2010
07.14

Preparing For Nature’s Worst

Earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, hail, hurricanes, tornadoes and lightning strikes are just a few of the nasty surprises that nature can whip up.  Unfortunately, bad weather can affect anyone.  It is important to prepare for both large-scale and small-scale natural disasters so that, when the damage is done, you have the means to pick up the pieces and rebuild your portfolio and your life.  In this article we will look at what you need to do to make sure your financial interests come out on top after any of these uncontrollable events.

Be Sure of Your Insurance

It is a common recurring theme in every area struck by a natural disaster that a) no one saw it coming, and b) no one was properly insured for it.  Sitting in our dry and cozy home, it can be easy to scoff at the victims, but the truth is that almost everyone can be under-insured when it comes to a disaster.  The biggest wake-up call is the fact that homeowner’s insurance covers a very limited set of circumstances — fires from faulty wiring and such — that doesn’t include all the natural disasters that your area may be prone to.

Full Replacement Coverage

At the very least you should have full replacement or replacement cost coverage.  This policy will cover the cost of replacing your home or other insured buildings.  Pay attention to the limits of the policy because they will define what kind of further coverage you need.  Earthquake and flood insurance are sold as separate policies and, although the premiums can be high, you should buy them if you live in an area that regularly suffers such disasters.  If you are new to the area, the local library archives will have environmental data that will help you look into what kinds of natural disasters have occurred in the area in the past.

Keeping Current

Once you have your home covered with all the relevant policies, you will need to have your home reassessed every few years so that the policies reflect the true value of your house.  Also, if you do major renovations, such as installing hardwood flooring or finishing the basement, you will need to update the policy.  There is a more extensive home insurance policy available called a guaranteed replacement cost policy.  This policy will rebuild your home and may include improvements dictated by changes in the building code (something other policies may omit), but it is not available everywhere.

Covering the Knick Knacks

For the best insurance records, consider keeping a detailed list of the contents of your home and update it yearly.  The list should include serial numbers, photos and descriptions of everything, even the fixtures.  This will expedite the processing of any claim you may file and serve as documentation for your tax losses and deductions.  The best way to make sure your list is accurate is to ask your insurance agent what he or she wants to see in a claim.  For more expensive items like jewelry and costly electronics, you should consider separate coverage over and above the basic coverage of the items in your house (items that are likely depreciated yearly by your insurance policy).  If you have a home office, you can get affordable business coverage to cover the equipment that you use for the business, rather than putting it under your basic home policy.

Renting? You Still Need Coverage

The insurance that your landlord carries will cover damages to the building but not your possessions.  Therefore, if you live in an area that’s prone to natural disaster, you should consider renter’s insurance.  Not all policies are created equal; if you get a bare-bones policy that just covers the replacement cost of your stuff, you will be missing possible coverage for the relocation to another area or the living costs while you wait for your apartment to be repaired.  Renter’s insurance can be pretty cheap, so shop around for the best policy and the best price.

Emergency Documents

With the exception of your will, which should be kept by your attorney or at the local registrar’s office, you should rent a safety deposit box for the originals of all other important documents.  Keeping them in your home puts you at risk of having them stolen, destroyed in a fire or swallowed in an earthquake.  This includes everything from your home’s deed to your marriage license.  One good idea would be to make two extra copies of all of these documents and leave one set with your attorney or a trusted friend/relative.  The second set will be placed in your emergency kit.

Emergency Kit and Your Wish List

An emergency kit is a small and compact package of things that you want to bring with you in the event that you and your family need to flee from a disaster.  Your emergency kit should be a box small enough to run with.  Making a pack that is waterproof with a lock would be a plus, but a child’s plastic lunch box will do in a pinch. Inside should be:

1. Copies of all your important documents (home’s deed, marriage license, birth certificates, etc).

2. Enough traveler’s checks or cash to make it through a few days at a hotel.

3. Copies of any prescriptions and your health and dental insurance cards.

4. Computer backups of your financial records (if you have them) or copies of the first two pages of your most recent federal and state income tax forms.

Also, you should make a wish list of items to take in the event that you have the time to collect a few select items before you need to flee.  This can be negatives or CDs full of your family photos, jewelry or whatever else is important to you and can be quickly stuffed and carried in a small bag.  It is easier to make the decisions now, when the roof and walls aren’t falling in around you and your loved ones.

Be Proactive

While preparing for an unexpected disaster sounds impossible, there are many things that you can do.  By taking the steps mentioned above, you will be better able to rebuild after the event, but, if you are homeowner, you can go even further.  There are many upgrades, such as hurricane shutters and moving your wiring so it runs in the attic, that will minimize the damage of most natural disasters.  As a bonus, these same upgrades will lower your insurance premiums.  Building inspectors, workers from your utility company and a local fire fighter will be able to tell you what changes you can make to protect your home and the people in it.

By: Andrew Beattie, www.forbes.com