Financial Decisions and Tax Consequences

June 30th, 2009

We thought you might find these two important ideas regarding financial decisions and tax consequences helpful. Make sure that you understand the tax impact of any financial transaction before you enter into it.  It is unfortunately all too common that people make horrible tax errors because they had bad information or didn’t take time to evaluate.  If you are contemplating a transaction, either take the time to research the tax consequences or take the time to engage the services of a qualified tax pro.  We would be happy to make a great recommendation to you. Be sure that you are not making a financial decision base entirely on the tax issues involved.  In some cases it might work out for you, but many times you may end up disappointed.  Taxes are still a percentage game, and that means that, in the 27% tax bracket, a tax deduction of $100 will only save you $27 in taxes.  The other $73 is gone.  So, when somebody throws money away and states, “It’s Ok, it’s a write-off,” remember that there might be tax benefits, but some real cash came out of this person’s pocket.

Money Market Recap and Forecast

June 29th, 2009

MMRecap for June 29

 

U.S. Treasury securities had a successful week in spite of some encouraging economic news.  Monday they rallied as the Fed enacted its buyback program, with a promise of more purchases on Thursday.  Buying also ensued when the World Bank cut its global growth forecast.

 

On Tuesday buyers returned after a weaker-than-expected report on May existing home sales.  They rose 2.4%, as they have for three of the last four months, to an annual rate of 4.7 million units — the highest since October.  Inventories dwindled to an annual rate of 3.8 million units, a 9.6-month supply.  The median sale price dropped to $173,000 and is down 16% over the last 12 months.

 

Wednesday was the only losing day for bonds.  Traders were disappointed that the Fed, in its post-meeting announcement, did not indicate it would step up efforts to buy more Treasuries in an effort to keep lending rates down.  After its meeting the Committee stated that the economic decline is slowing and inflation is not a worry.

 

Releases earlier that day showed durable goods orders rising 1.8% in May — the best one-month increase in more than four years, and the third increase in the last four months.  Demand for airplanes and machinery boosted numbers.  Separately, new home sales edged down 0.6% in May to an annual rate of 342,000 units.  Analysts expected 360,000.

 

First-time jobless claims rose by 15,000 to 627,000 for the week ended June 20, igniting another bond rally.  Traders saw it as a sign of slow recovery.  Economic weakness should ensure that the Fed will keep rates low in an effort to speed recovery, and that’s what traders want.  Continuing claims — those collecting benefits for more than one week — jumped back up to 6.74 million.

 

The final revision of 1stquarter GDP showed slight improvement.  The final value of goods and services produced in the U.S. was -5.5% — up from -5.6%.  The 4thquarter 2008 (-6.3%) and the 1stquarter 2009 are the two worst back-to-back quarters in 60 years.

 

Personal income and spending for May rose.  Income jumped 1.4% in May, doubling April’s revised 0.7% gain.  Spending rose 0.3% from a revised 0.0% in April.  The core rate (a key inflation gauge) rose 0.1%, down from April’s 0.3% increase. The day’s last report, the University of Michigan/Reuters’ final consumer sentiment survey for June, climbed to 70.8 from 69 two weeks ago.  Buying in Treasuries softened but remained positive in the early going.

 

A dip in mortgage rates during the week ended June 19 brought mortgage applications back up to speed.  Purchases climbed 7.3%, the highest since early April, and refis rose 5.9%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

 

This holiday-shortened week will seem even shorter because all releases are crammed into three days, starting with Tuesday’s consumer confidence index for June.   Analysts believe it will edge up to 55.1 from 54.9 — not a jump, but a move in the right direction.  The Chicago PMI manufacturing index for June is expected to follow suit, rising to 38.5 from 34.9.  Anything over 50 indicates sector expansion, and we’re getting closer.

 

July begins with the ISM index on nationwide manufacturing conditions in June and it, too, is expected to rise to 44 from 42.8.  The magic number for the ISM is also 50.  The news on construction spending for May might not be as uplifting.  Economists expect a decline of 0.5% after April’s 0.8% gain.

 

Friday’s holiday allows us to get the June employment report on Thursday, but an increase in job losses is expected.  We could see 370,000 jobs erased from nonfarm payrolls, versus 345,000 in May.  In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 9.6% from 9.4%.  Although discouraging, it is not unexpected.  The Fed and many economists say unemployment should remain high well into next year.

 

First-time unemployment claims for the week ended June 27 will also be released.  It’s possible they could rise again as some school employees, e.g., bus drivers and cafeteria workers, are allowed to collect benefits in the summer.  Separately, factory orders in May could rise 0.2% — somewhat less that April’s 0.7% increase.

Red Seal Homes - NeuHaven Closeout

June 26th, 2009

The Lake Team of Guaranteed Rate will be at Red Seal Homes NeuHaven project in Antioch, IL tomorrow from 10AM - 2PM.  These town homes and single family homes are gorgeous and completely affordable.  To learn more about the project go to: http://www.redsealhomes.com/communities/neuhaven/overview.htm.

Real Estate Industry News: Appraising the New Appraisal Problem

June 25th, 2009

The Home Valuation Code of Conduct, according to Freddie Mac, is all about “enhancing the independence and integrity of the appraisal process.”  Good ideas, those.  Go, Freddie!

If you were a licensed real estate agent in 2005 (which, according to the most recent census, includes everyone over 18 except some guy from Des Moines named Carl), you undoubtedly understand the need for a code of conduct.  Back in the glory days when homes, or as we liked to call them, debit cards, were in high demand, the typical conversation between the listing agent and appraiser went something like this:

APPRAISER: I have been asked to appraise the property at 347 Falling Downs.  May I meet you there at 3 p.m. today?

AGENT: Great, yes!

APPRAISER: What is the sale price?

AGENT: The price is $5,257,000, which is a little higher than the price of the last one-bedroom condo that sold in the neighborhood, but it’s really nice, and we had multiple offers!

APPRAISER: Good one!  Were there any concessions?

AGENT: Well, the buyer did offer to raise the seller’s children as his own.

APPRAISER: Alrighty, then.  We should be fine.  Just bring a copy of the contract.

So, something clearly had to be done.  Consider my housecleaner.  I use the term “housecleaner” loosely because, while she shows up under the auspices of cleaning the house, she simply moves the dirt around and hides things (like the Tupperware in the sock drawer).  I can’t bring myself to fire her, though.  At one point, she owned four properties — four!  All are sadly now gone to foreclosure.  She needs the work.

And this is where the code of conduct comes in.  Who says you can’t legislate ethics?  The lenders were bad, bad children.  The argument is that in their youthful exuberance to give all of their money away, they established relationships with appraisers who would consistently return the magic number, all too aware of on which side their paycheck was buttered.

Maybe some lenders did influence the valuation process to their own benefit and to the consumer’s detriment.  Or maybe, and I’ll just throw this out there, a home’s value is in fact loosely related to what a buyer is willing to pay, and when the lenders were giving out free money, buyers were willing to pay a lot — a lot of the lender’s money.  Either way, the regulating parents have stepped in.

So, we are now living under a new lotto system for assigning appraisers.  And now, our first point of contact with the appraiser goes something like this.

APPRAISER DISPATCHER: We have been asked to appraise the property at 11283 Peep Holes Court.

AGENT: You mean Peoples Court?

APPRAISER DISPATCHER: Whatever.  When can we get in to see it?

AGENT: When would you like to get in to see it?

APPRAISER DISPATCHER: Please hold.

On the last such call, I held at this point for exactly 13 minutes (I counted).  And while I enjoyed the musical stylings of Paul Anka, I sat mildly amused with the irony that it was she who had called me.  A better woman would have hung up, but I knew she had me over a barrel.  I needed that appraisal, and I was at the mercy of this person who did not really work for the buyer or his lender, much less for me or my selling client.  I guess that is what true independence is all about.

APPRAISER DISPATCHER: (returning from lunch): Where is the property located again?

AGENT: San Diego.

APPRAISER DISPATCHER: That’s in California, right?  Please hold.

PAUL ANKA: Havin’ my baby ¦

APPRAISER DISPATCHER: Our next opening is at noon on Tuesday, in the Year of the Dragon.  Oh, and bring a copy of the contract.

Now, I have always been slightly confused on this last point.  If an appraisal is to be independent, why does the appraiser need me to tell him what the sale price is?  Isn’t it his job to give an opinion of what the home is really worth, independent (there’s that word again) of what the contract might say?  Alas, that one shall remain a mystery.  The bigger issue is that while we used to encounter the same stable of appraisers on each outing, we now only occasionally run into one that didn’t have to stop at the Jiffy-Mart to ask directions.

And when we do see the rare, familiar face, we get an earful.  Appraisers who have spent years building their reputations and their relationships are now seeing their businesses regulated into the trash can.  The costs to the consumers are going up, but the income to the established appraisers is going south because of a combination of fewer assignments and lower fees.

The latter is because somebody has to pay for the administration and oversight, which now is typically dispensed by an appraisal management company.  If as an agent you have ever been involved in a relocation company transaction, one where you concede one-third or more of your fee to someone so they can “manage” the delivery of your services, oftentimes involving a client you had a relationship with to begin with, it’s kind of like that.  Except with relocation companies, there is still a customer involved somewhere.

And, just in case anyone even thinks about getting ornery and gaming the new system, Fannie and Freddie will be funding an Independent Valuation Protection Institute to “maintain the integrity” of the very code of conduct intended to maintain the integrity of the appraisal process.  Perhaps we should have a system in place for maintaining the institute’s integrity.  After all, you can’t be too careful.

So, back to my IRL (in real life) grab bag.  First there was the home that sold at full price during its first day on the market.  Our lucky quick-pick ticket gave us an appraiser who refused to actually go inside the property.  It was what they call a drive-by appraisal, and I am being generous here because there was no evidence that anyone bearing even a slight resemblance to a valuation professional had been within 12 counties of this home.

With no model-match sales within the last two years (what we, in the industry, might call “latent demand”), the appraiser relied on sales of homes whose only similarities were in the fact that they, too, had mailboxes.  Our requests to provide relevant data, appeal the appraisal, and even to simply speak to the mystery appraiser were denied.  It cost the seller $5,000.

More fun yet was the appraisal process for our most recent listing.  This one involved an FHA appraisal and, admittedly, the level of difficulty here is slightly higher.  The appraiser is also an inspector of sorts.  The assigned out-of-area appraiser did his routine appraiser-guy thing.  He measured and took pictures and asked for a copy of the contract.  And he identified a couple of outlets that, although not a grandfathered code requirement, he said would need to be GFCI protected (ground-fault circuit interrupters are safety devices that guard against fatal electrocution).  The FHA likes GFCIs — a lot.

Two days later, while foolishly thinking that because the property had been appraised, we had fulfilled the requirement that the property be appraised, we took a call from a second inspector.  This is routine with FHA: doing things twice.  In fact, many conventional loans now involve private screenings of “Appraisal: The Redux.”  Better to be cautious.

The first guy might have not have acted “independently” as the code requires, having suffered from impaired vision due to a seller headlock or too much time spent squinting at the shiny red buttons on electrical outlets.  Or maybe he didn’t act with “integrity” and lied about stuff in his report (like GFCIs).

Our second appraiser came and conquered, and as inconceivable as this might sound, he too found that we needed some outlet upgrades (the same ones).  And, crazy as it may seem, his estimate of value, like the first-string appraiser-guy, was exactly what the buyer had offered to pay.  Buyers are so smart!

So, off to underwriting we go, but not so fast.  All of you veteran agents know that the FHA appraiser would have to first come back to make sure that those outlets of death were properly addressed, which he did.  So off to underwriting we go — but not so fast.

What if the first appraiser did not act independently, but instead believed us when we told him that the toaster oven was really a new GFCI?  What if he lacked integrity, and he didn’t really push the reset button to confirm that the new outlet was browning evenly?  The second appraiser, we were told, would have to return to look at the same outlets.

Twenty-seven days into a 30-day escrow and we are still playing tag-team appraisal.  I have spent so much time looking at the wall sockets in this home that if it burned down tomorrow, I could draw up detailed electrical plans with a box of crayons and confidence.  But I don’t blame the appraisers.  In trying to win the right war, a bunch of well-meaning people just picked the wrong battle.  We may find a lot of unintended casualties as a result.

Imagine you are an agent with a decade or more of experience.  You have gained knowledge, you have established credibility and a loyal client base from which your future business will be sustained, and then suddenly someone tells you that the system is not fair.

Instead, your client database is commandeered and each person is now assigned the next licensed agent in the rotation, neighborhood specialist be damned.  And then, like a relocation company, they will essentially charge you for the privilege — when your number comes up. It might be enough to inspire Carl from Des Moines to finally get that license, but for the established agent, it could hurt the bottom line.

Imagine that, and you can imagine what a lot of appraisers are feeling right now.  One could argue that the appraisal management companies are the winners and the rest of us, well, that’s another story.

I was speaking with a loan officer this week when he confessed, “This was supposed to improve the quality of appraisals.  What it has really done is tank the quality of the product and the levels of service.  It’s a mess.”

Maybe the Valuation Protection Institute can take that up at their first meeting.

 

By: Kris Berg, www.inman.com

An Article of Interest: America’s Looming Retirement Crisis

June 24th, 2009

“Our nation’s system of retirement security is imperiled, headed for a serious train wreck.  That wreck is not merely waiting to happen; we are running on a dangerous track that is leading directly to a serious crash that will disable major parts of our retirement system.”

– John Bogle, Feb. 24, 2009

If, several years before the financial and credit crisis hit, someone had told you that the housing market was preposterously overvalued and derivatives were headed for cataclysm, would it have been worth paying attention to?  The answer’s pretty clearly yes, isn’t it?  Of course, some of the best minds in finance — from Warren Buffett to Yale housing economist Robert Shiller — did.  It’s just that hardly anyone listened.

Now there’s another crisis building.  It’s just as big.  Again, some of the best thinkers in the financial world are warning about it.  (Yes, Buffett’s one of them.)  And, yet again, as is often the case with gathering storms, most of us are doing our best to ignore the warning signs.

Americans lost almost one-quarter of their retirement savings last year.  But even if there were no market drop, we’d still be facing a disaster.

The urgent lines at the top of this story come from John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard group of mutual funds and father of the low-cost stock-index fund — the simplest and most cost-efficient tool yet devised for individual investing in stocks.  Of all the people who’ve thought longest and best about individual investing, Bogle has to rank near the top.  For decades before the financial crisis ripped open the country’s retirement accounts, Bogle was tirelessly warning people away from their brokers’ fads and follies.

Bogle’s voice is now one of the loudest and most cogent of those calling for a rethinking of American retirement.  He made the remarks above to a congressional panel looking at the security of American savings.  Like much of what is said about retirement, Bogle’s words passed by without much attention.  But much of what he has to say is seriously worth listening to.

Over the past two decades, we’ve embarked on what is essentially a novel experiment, replacing the pension plans of the past with a patchwork of individual accounts.  We had sound reasons for this: Letting people choose how much they save for retirement instead of counting on their employers to give them a decent pension if they put in enough time makes sense.  But if the basic idea of personal responsibility for retirement is appealing to most, the reality is a lot thornier.

By this point, there is hardly anyone left who hasn’t heard of a 401k or doesn’t know that they should open one.  With some tweaks to the rules for 401k enrollment, the Obama administration is hoping to get participation in individual retirement plans up to 80% of Americans.

The bad news from Bogle, though, is that the way it’s set up now, the 401k isn’t the panacea that policymakers across the spectrum hope it will be.  What’s wrong with the 401k?  Simply having a retirement account is not enough.  Much of the discussion this past year has focused on getting more workers to open a 401k.  The problem is that the big majority of retirement accounts don’t really hold nearly enough money.

According to Bogle’s numbers, the median IRA has $55,000 in it.  By his calculations, that’s enough to provide a steady income of $2,200 a year — less than $200 a month.  That’s it.

The typical 401k holds only $15,000.  Bogle argues that to reach the level of income they hope for in retirement, Americans need to put 15% of their earnings in retirement accounts for their entire working lives.  Very few do.

One of the biggest differences between individual accounts and traditional pension plans is that they transfer what Bogle calls “longevity risk” from pension funds to individuals.  What that means in practice is that you need to save more — a lot more — in your account than a pension plan would include in order to cover the chance that you’ll live to a very old age.

Right now, we have no good solution to this.  In theory, you should be able to put your money into an annuity at retirement that’ll cover this risk.  But as Bogle points out, there are virtually no annuities that will let you do this at a low cost.  So now your underfunded retirement account looks even worse.

We all know the financial advice about putting retirement assets in safe investments as we grow older.  But in practice, we don’t come close to following it.  Most retirement fund assets are in equities.  And it doesn’t get much better for people approaching retirement: According to Bogle, 30% of them have 80% of their IRA investments in stocks.

What this means in practice is that some people (not many, Bogle thinks, as most people make terrible investment decisions) will do very well.  And others, such as the people retiring this year in the wake of the massive stock market drop, will do very badly.  It’s what Bogle calls investment risk, and like longevity risk, moving from pension plans to individual instruments such as a 401k or an IRA has transferred that from corporations to retirees.

Facing a one-two punch

Bogle proposes the beginnings of several solutions to our retirement problem.  Clearly, finding ways to nudge people to put more money into retirement accounts is part of the answer.  But it’s only a small part.  It does nothing for longevity risk and nothing to distribute investment risk.  Pension funds did that: If you happened to retire the year the market crashed or if you lived to be 90 years old, that was OK, because your risks were shared with people who retired in other years or failed to live as long.

As it stands now, 401k plans do nothing for those risks.  On the contrary, many of the bad practices that Americans have fallen into, such as putting much of their retirement money in their own employer’s stock, exacerbate them.

Bogle points to several tools — the creation of annuities that would work a lot like pension plans to level investment and longevity risk — that would help give Americans the equipment they need to manage their retirement.  But developing those tools and making them widely available right now just aren’t on the political agenda.  And Bogle (who wryly urges casting the “money changers” of Wall Street out of “the temple of finance”) warns that we shouldn’t expect them to come from the big financial companies.

We’re already witnessing the beginnings of a retirement catastrophe now: You can see it if you look at the growing number of older Americans who have kept working into their 60s and 70s or gone back into the work force.  Without a dramatic change, not just in the amount of money that we save but in how we save, it will get much worse.

In the 1980s, Britain launched what turned out to be a disastrous experiment in asking people to take responsibility for their retirement investments without giving them the tools to do it.  We’re now well on our way to repeating it on a much bigger scale.

Without it, we’re facing a one-two punch in the retirement future.  The lead left is the shortage of savings.  The ensuing right is the added investment and longevity risk that the new model of retirement brings.  It’s a potential disaster as big as the mortgage and credit crisis.  And as with those, if we get to it, folks in finance will be out in force, crying that nobody could possibly have seen it coming.  That’s just not true.

 

By: Mark Gimein, www.thebigmoney.com

An Article of Interest: 7 Steps to Minimize Junk Mail and Unwanted Calls

June 23rd, 2009

One big disadvantage of bargain hunting, being politically active, and researching personal finance products is that I often end up o a lot of mailing lists and calling lists.  And they’re distracting.  Sometimes, I’ll get multiple phone calls a day related to causes that I’m not interested in, and I’ll see items and catalogues in the mail that I have no real interest in receiving.

 

A few years ago, I didn’t worry about this too much, but over time this built up to absurdity, with phone calls all throughout the evening and piles of junk mail arriving on a daily basis.  Not only did these things cost time, they also cost money; catalogues and other such items sitting around the house are an easy temptation.

 

So I started putting my foot down, taking action against all of these unsolicited mailings.  Here are some of the tactics and resources I used (and still use).  There are four key websites worth visiting when trying to minimize the amount of junk mail and telemarketer calls you receive.

 

OptOutPrescreen

 

https://www.optoutprescreen.com/

 

This website, hosted by the credit agencies, allows you to opt out from prescreened credit card offers for five years.  Under the Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act of 2003, the credit agencies must allow people to opt out of mailings generated solely by your current credit score — primarily, unsolicited credit card offers.

 

Signing up is pretty simple.  Doing it via the web lasts five years; sending in your form by snail mail makes the opt out permanent.  If you receive quite a few credit card offers, this is well worth signing up for.

 

Do Not Call Registry

 

http://www.donotcall.gov/

 

Another federal act, the Do-Not-Call Implementation Act of 2003 (and the later improvement, the Do-Not-Call Improvement Act of 2007), comes to the rescue when battling against unsolicited phone calls.

 

To put it simply, visit http://www.donotcall.gov/ or call 1-888-382-1222 and simply ask to join the National Do Not Call Registry.  Once you’re on the list for ninety days, solicitors can no longer call you unless you’ve already opted in on the phone call in some fashion (meaning, for example, businesses you already work with).

 

DirectMail.com Mail Preference Registry

 

https://www.directmail.com/directory/mail_preference/

 

DirectMail.com’s Mail Preference Registry enables you to easily get off the mailing list of direct mailers of all stripes, like catalog shipments and those little cardboard flyers that let you know about “sales” at local stores.  This is actually done by a large consortium of direct mailers, who would actually prefer not to waste their money sending things to people who simply ignore the material (it’s not free to send a catalog, and if you’re just tossing them in the mail, that’s a needless expense).

 

Do Not Mail Registry

 

http://www.donotmail.org/

 

This final site isn’t something you can sign up for quite yet.  Instead, it’s a grassroots organization attempting to develop a national Do-Not-Mail registry backed with penalties from the government.  You can sign their petition and get involved with the project on their website.

 

Three Additional Steps

 

Beyond visiting these sites, there are three additional things you can do to minimize the pervasiveness of junk mail and telemarketing in your life.

 

Don’t let unwanted mail persist in your home.  If you get an unsolicited mailing, whether it be a credit card offer or a catalog, destroy any personal information and get it in the trash can immediately.  That way, a catalog or another offer that might tempt you (like the Williams & Sonoma catalog at our home, for example) won’t be sitting around encouraging you to spend money.  Just trash it immediately (or utilize the third tip below).

 

Request removal from specific unwanted mailings and call lists.  If you’ve opted in for a mailing in the past and now wish for it to stop, call the phone number on the mailing and request removal from their list.  Removal might not be immediate, but with a few patient calls, even the most persistent of mailers (or the laziest of customer service representatives) will cease their mailings.

 

Use junk mail as a resource.  A final tactic: use the junk mail for something else.  One great tactic is to shred junk mail, add a bit of paraffin, and make simple fire starters out of them (great for camping!).  You can also harvest envelopes for your own mailing purposes and, of course, take things like mailing labels that some solicitors will send to you.  Just toss the rest, and don’t worry about it.

 

Junk mail (and junk phone calls) eat up your valuable time, waste resources, and serve as a great distraction that encourages you towards poor financial choices.  Why not just nip these things in the bud with a few minutes of your time right now?

 

By: Trent, www.thesimpledollar.com

Money Market Recap and Forecast

June 22nd, 2009

MM Recap for June 22

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note, which moves in the opposite direction of price, rode the roller coaster last week.  Once again better-than-expected economic news erased some safe-haven buying, although the equity markets didn’t have a banner week.

Good news on inflation propped up buying a bit, but as always, concern about more debt coming into the market kept buyers on the sidelines.  But into Friday the yield held lower than the week prior, allowing mortgage rates, which follow the yield, to fall.

Tuesday began with the producer price index (PPI) for May rising 0.2% due to higher energy costs.  Year-over-year, the PPI — which looks for inflation at the wholesale level — is down 5%.  That is the most since 1949.  The core, which eliminates food and energy prices, fell 0.1%.

Housing starts and building permits in May offered more good news, with starts rising 17.2% to an annual rate of 532,000 units.  Although multi-family units led with a 62% surge, single-family homes rose 7.5%, the best since November.  Building permits climbed to an annual rate of 518,000.

News from the manufacturing sector wasn’t as rosy.  Industrial production in May fell 1.1% due to weakness in motor vehicles, mining and high-tech products.  Over the past year, output is down 13.4%.  And capacity utilization hit 68.3% — a record low.

Wednesday’s report on retail inflation calmed fears.  The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% in May — the first increase in three months.  Lower food prices offset higher prices at the pump.  The core rate rose only 0.1%.  Over the past year the CPI is down 1.3%.

Thursday’s big news was that people collecting unemployment benefits for more than one week fell by 148,000 to 6.68 million, the fewest since May 9.  However, initial claims for the week ended June 13 rose by 3,000 to 608,000.

The index of leading economic indicators, which looks at economic conditions over the coming six to nine months, rose 1.2% in May with seven of the 10 components showing gains.  The index has risen 1.2% in the past six months.

There was a split decision on the status of regional manufacturing.  The NY Empire State index for June fell to a worse-than-expected -9.41 from 4.55%.  But the more closely watched Philly Fed index leapt to -2.2 from -22.6, led by big jumps in new orders and shipments.  Employment was down.

Strong selling in Treasuries during the week ended June 12 sent mortgage rates up and applications down.  Applications to refinance fell by a whopping 23.3%, while purchases dropped 3.5%.  According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the decline in purchase apps was the first in four weeks.

The last full week of June features a number of interesting reports.  Topping the list will be the statement after Wednesday’s Fed meeting, but it won’t likely focus on interest rates.  Traders are anxious to know if the Fed will increase the size of its debt buyback program, which was put in place in an effort to keep mortgage rates low.

Homes sales for May will also be out, with increases expected.  Existing home sales could hit an annual rate of 4.83 million units — substantially more than the 4.68 million for April.  New home sales are expected to reach an annual rate of 360,000 — up from 352,000 the previous month.

Tuesday could bring not-so-good news on durable goods orders for May.  After a great April for these items that are meant to last three or more years, orders are predicted to have fallen 0.9% versus a 1.9% increase.  A 0.5% decline is expected when transportation is excluded — a big drop from a 0.8% gain.On Thursday, more good news on continued claims, and a decline in first-time claims for the week ended June 20 would be welcome.  The final revision of 1stquarter GDP is expected to be unchanged at -5.7%.

Friday’s report on personal income/spending for May should show income up 0.2% and spending up 0.4%, which would aid in an economic rebound.  Core inflation is expected to edge down to a respectable 0.2% increase.  The final University of Michigan/Reuters’ consumer sentiment poll for June should hold at 69. 

Buy Now Or Pay Later!!!

June 19th, 2009

Buy now or Pay Later!!!  What is the true cost of waiting to buy a home?

This year has the potential to the best buying opportunity for home buyers in the last decade. Home prices have fallen to the lowest prices in recent history, interest rates are at historic lows, and qualifying first time home buyers will receive an $8,000 tax credit.  But why are people waiting? Everyone is looking to for the bottom in the housing market, I think many of those people have just missed it.

If you are waiting to catch the bottom on housing prices you may miss the bottom on interest rates. I want you to take a look at the following examples to see how as a potential home buyer you may have missed the bottom.

Let’s make a conservative assumption that housing prices will still decline 5% before they start to appreciate again. If you are waiting for the price of the $200,000 home to drop to $190,000 and the interest rates increase by 1% in that time frame; you will end up costing yourself $62.08 per month and $31,850 over the life of the loan. (Based on a 30 year mortgage).  Interest rates used in this example 5.5% and 6.5%

Current market conditions

Sale Price $200,000

Down Payment  $10,000

Loan Amount $190,000

Rate 5.5%

Principal & Interest $1,078.80

Assumptive Market Conditions

Sale Price $190,000

Down Payment  $9,500

Loan Amount $180,500

Rate 6.5%

Principal & Interest $1,140.88I

Increase in Monthly Payment   $62.08I

ncrease in Interest over 30 years $31,850

In conclusion; now is the best time to buy a home. With lower housing prices and low rates borrowers can achieve the goal of home ownership and keep their monthly payments low and affordable.For your convenience please follow the link to your our mortgage calculator.  http://www.guaranteedrate.com/calc/calculator.php

Written by:  Sam Fazio; Guaranteed Rate - The Lake Team

New Website

June 18th, 2009

The new website is finally here!  Check it out @ http://www.jeffreylake.com

Real Estate Industry News: Should Home Buyers Purchase a Home Equity Protection Plan?

June 18th, 2009
Watching a home’s value plunge by double-digit percentages in a matter of months is enough to unnerve even the most financially secure homeowner.  And, as the real estate market continues to reel, concerns are growing that the free fall is far from over.  So, real estate salespeople may be especially interested in learning more about these new equity protection programs.

Playing into that anxiety are two companies — EquityLock Financial, based in Austin, Texas, and Lighthouse Group based in Charlotte, N.C. — that are selling products promising to put a little more control in homeowners’ hands.  Their pitch?  That homeowners could spend a little now to hedge against declines in the value of their home later.

Here’s how it works: For a fee of 1% to 3% of their home’s value, homeowners buy a contract that protects them against the loss of equity in their home if the market takes a turn for the worse.  The contract, which should not be confused with an insurance policy, pays the homeowner when he sells his home in a market where average home prices have dropped since their purchase.  The amount he receives is tied to the size of the market’s decline, as measured by one of two home price indexes (both of which are based on sales of single-family homes).

Say you buy a home in Denver for $300,000.  Five years later, after Denver’s home price index falls 10%, you sell it for $290,000.  At closing, the company you bought the equity protection from pays you $30,000 — your original purchase price times 10%.  Even if you sold your home for more than what you paid to buy it, you can still make the claim, as long as the index fell.  (If the index rises, however, you can’t make a claim and you’re out the $6,000 you spent buying the contract.)

“It’s the kind of product that ends up being useful for a niche part of the population, but likely not really worthwhile for homeowners in general,” says Todd Sinai, associate professor of real estate at the Wharton School.

One factor to consider is how long a buyer plans to live in your home.  If it’s going to be 10 or 15 years, buying protection doesn’t make much sense, says Susan Wachter, real estate professor at Wharton.  While home prices can change dramatically in the short term, they hold steady and tend to increase over longer periods.  For short-term homeowners, though, it might make more sense.  If, for instance, someone anticipates a move for work and worries that area prices will sag, the protection can be worthwhile, says Sinai.

We spoke with real estate experts about what to look out for when shopping for home equity protection plans.  Here’s what they had to say:

Calculate the costs

Payment terms are different for each product.  EquityLock’s premium, which is paid upfront, ranges from 1% to 3% of the purchase price (or of the current value if you already own a home).  Lighthouse’s premium could be paid either on a monthly or yearly basis, and typically works out to just under 1% of the home’s value, per year, says a company spokesman.

Say your house is worth $300,000 and you pay $6,000 (a 2% premium) for EquityLock’s protection.  You’re starting with a $6,000 loss, and you’ll only break even if the house index drops enough from the time you purchase the home to the time you decide to sell.  “You really have to think hard if the initial cost is worth it,” says Sinai.

Watch out for lockout periods

Those interested should be sure to ask about any lockout period which bars them from collecting payment before a set time.  EquityLock imposes an exclusion term ranging from 18 to 30 months from the time the protection is purchased.  So you can’t sell your home and make a claim a year after the contract begins.  Lighthouse has no lockout period.  But if a homeowner exercises the contract after, say, the first month, they still owe the future monthly payments that are due.

Housing indexes are imperfect

Potential payouts are tied to a house price index: either the S&P Case-Shiller house price index, which tracks 20 metro markets, or the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index, commonly known as FHFA HPI, which covers 386 markets.  The problem?  Indexes don’t capture the true volatility and variation within markets — and they don’t always correlate with the specific value of your home, says Jonathan Adams, a finance professor at NYU.  For example, if highway construction has just gotten underway at the next block over, chances are your home’s value would dive, but the index might stay the same, says Adams.  (Lighthouse says tying the contract to an index is the most efficient way to determine a home’s value, without having to actually sell the house or get an appraisal.)

Be wary of new, untested products

Buyers need to bear in mind the novelty of these plans when assessing their worth.  “When it comes to finances and your home equity, you really want to go with someone who has a history,” says Alison Southwick, spokeswoman for the Better Business Bureau.  Also, new products tend to be more expensive, says Mark Browne, professor of risk management at the University of Wisconsin.  They haven’t been around for long, so it might be better to wait for competition to build.

 

By: Lisa Scherzer, www.smartmoney.com